Consequences of Brexit

According to the European Movement International these things can be clarified as the Consequences of Brexit.

Economic Interdependence

The UK is more economically dependent on the EU than vice versa; 12.6% of UK GDP is linked to exports to the EU, compared to only 3.1% of GDP generated from exports to the UK among the other 27 Member States. Overall, 60% of total UK trade is covered by EU membership and the preferential access it grants to 53 markets outside the EU. If TTIP and other currently negotiated trade deals succeed this could increase to 85%. In total, the seven most affected industries (financial services, automobile, chemicals/pharmaceuticals aerospace, machinery, food/beverages/tobacco, and professional services) employ 20.79% of the UK labour force. Another measure of EU-UK inter dependency is the 1.4 to 1.8 million UK nationals that live in other parts of the EU on a permanent basis.

A trade-off between economic well-being and Immigration

Estimates for UK GDP in the case of a ‘Leave’ vote vary between an income loss of 9.5% and an income gain of 1.6% by 2030, with most predicting an income loss of between 2-3% of GDP. The only possible way to realise the scenario of 1.6% GDP growth would however require controversial economic reforms on three fronts: 1) further open up the economy to competition from China, India, USA and Indonesia; 2) pursue a liberal policy for labour migration; 3) slash regulation on environmental rules, social and employment protections and financial services. All three reforms seem highly unlikely given that anti-immigration sentiments are one of the main drivers of a Brexit vote and Britain is likely to keep many EU rules on climate change and banking regulation, where it has gone further in some areas than the EU standard.

Sovereignty and Security

The EU is the principal source of leverage for Britain in the world. The EU allows the UK to leverage the world’s biggest single market to secure the UK’s economic interests, to shape policies towards the EU’s Eastern and Southern neighbourhoods, to maximise its ability to shape global policies on climate change and to give it more clout vis-à-vis countries such as the United States. Leaving the EU would accelerate and make more permanent the UK’s diminished influence in the global order, forcing it to fall back on secondary relationships in order to exert influence.

Negotiation Position vis-à-vis the EU

Due to the formal process of leaving the EU, laid out in Article 50 in the Lisbon Treaty, and the nature of its trade relationship with the EU, the UK would be at a disadvantage if it found itself in the position of having to renegotiate its relationship with the EU following a Brexit vote. Article 50 allows all EU Member States a veto on any part of a renegotiated deal and empowers the EU to set the pace of negotiations. Furthermore, although the UK has a net trade deficit with the EU, it has a net trade surplus in services of £10.3 billion. The EU will thus have far less of a rationale to conclude a liberal agreement on services access than on goods, which would severely hurt the UK economy, where the service sector makes up almost 80% of the economy according to the UK Office of National Statistics. Lastly, the UK will be affected by a significant array of EU legislation, especially if it takes the likely route of wanting substantial access to the EU Single Market, with the important difference being that the UK would not be able to influence legislation.

And not only for the European community and UK if Brexit happened it will affect the whole world. According to article “Trump: Brexit plan 'will probably kill' US trade deal” (July 13^th 2018 – Daily News) Even Theresa May said that Brexit is an opportunity to create growth between UK and USA foreign and economic relations Trump was strongly criticised Britain plan to leave EU and even he threatened to stopped the economic deal. So, If Brexit happened Britain’s economic future might be on a critical situation. But anyway, Theresa May said that she has a backup plan. Even Brexit happened it is important to Britain to remain in the economic relations with EU. But if EU refused to trade according to the article “U.K. has secret plan to hold Brexit Cash if EU refuses to Trade” (August 2^nd 2018 – Daily News). Prime Minister Theresa May’s team is eyeing up a contingency plan to hold back billions of pounds in Brexit payments, if the European Union refuses to give the U.K. the trade deal it wants. Senior British officials have privately discussed the idea as a fall-back option that could be triggered if negotiations go wrong, three people familiar with the matter said. The plan is not the U.K.’s preferred outcome, but some in May’s administration believe it could be necessary in case the EU tries to renege on a future commitment to a free-trade deal.

But according to the latest news “EU leaders warn Brexit is still far away” (October 21^st 2018 – Daily News).  EU leaders today warned a Brexit deal is still ‘far away’ despite Theresa May’s plea for them to end the deadlock in negotiations. he Prime Minister is still struggling for a breakthrough after a ten-minute pitch of her Chequers blueprint fell on deaf ears at a summit dinner in Salzburg last night.  Appealing for her counterparts to compromise, Mrs May flatly dismissed the EU’s latest proposals for resolving the Northern Ireland border issue, saying they would break up the UK. She also ruled out any delay to Britain’s departure from the EU in March – insisting there were no circumstances in which she would consider a second referendum. But her fellow leaders - who received the speech in stony silence as they have vowed not to discuss Brexit directly with the UK - were unimpressed.  In a clear swipe at Mrs May’s proposals to align with EU rules on goods but not services, French President Emmanuel Macron today warned he would not accept so-called ‘cherry-picking’ that undermined the EU single market.  Other leaders said the talks were at a ‘standstill’, and called for the UK to hold another public vote to reverse Brexit altogether.  Meanwhile, Mrs May is facing a growing revolt at home with Tory plotters branding her ‘deluded’ and calling Chequers ‘as dead as a dodo’.